One of the tricks to determining your ROI is to be able to predict the default curve.
Pninen of the Prosper Forums has been tracking the 1 month or more late curves for each monthly cohort of loans. The source of his data is the Prosper Performance Web Page…
I have only one BIG problem with the stark picture these curves express. It is all loans. I would much rather see a loans late % for all cohort for each cohorts 1, 2, 3, 4, … month periods broken down by credit grade. That way people like me that have avoided HR (completely) and E (1 loan) and D (less than 5% of portfolio) can see expected performance. In fact, I think I will try to produce just such a graph.
Here is a link to the original forum post. A warning, this thread is very long at this point.
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