Prosper 1 month Late or Worse Curves by Monthly Cohort | P2P Lending, Peer to Peer Lending, People to People Lending

One of the tricks to determining your ROI is to be able to predict the default curve.

Pninen of the Prosper Forums has been tracking the 1 month or more late curves for each monthly cohort of loans. The source of his data is the Prosper Performance Web Page…

Prosper Late Loan Default Curves

I have only one BIG problem with the stark picture these curves express. It is all loans. I would much rather see a loans late % for all cohort for each cohorts 1, 2, 3, 4, … month periods broken down by credit grade. That way people like me that have avoided HR (completely) and E (1 loan) and D (less than 5% of portfolio) can see expected performance. In fact, I think I will try to produce just such a graph.


Here is a link to the original forum post. A warning, this thread is very long at this point.

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