1 Month Late or Worse Curves by Credit Grade (September 1, 07 Update) | P2P Lending, Peer to Peer Lending, People to People Lending

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September 8th, 2007 | Prosper.com, Statistics, Strategy, Tools

This is an update to my original 1 month late or worse curves.

I believe we are starting to see the continued flattening of the curves. Time will tell.

I have pulled the public data on the performance tab by hand in order to produce a spreadsheet of loan performance.

This spreadsheet was then pivoted and aggregated in order to produce 1 month late curves by credit grade and Markov Chains which can be used (when 42 months of data is available) to solve for the expected value of Prosper Loans by credit grade.

I have limited the graphs to smooth curves (at least 4 months of data).

1 Month Late or Worse by Count (click picture for larger image):

1 Month Late By Count 200709

1 Month Late or Worse by Amount (click picture for larger image):

1 Month Late By Amount 200709

Questions, Comments, Screams of Anguish?

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#1Ericon 09.08.07 at 8:51 pm

Thanks for commenting on my loan over at my blog. I am trying to think out of the box on how to get a loan financed in a state like Virginia with a cap of 11% interest. Are the borrowers allowed to give lenders incentives, like cash rewards?

#2Mikeon 09.09.07 at 11:47 am

Kevin –

Is that the % in default over thus far, or the annualized rate?

#3Kevinon 09.09.07 at 6:25 pm

The % is the cummlative 1 month late or worse rate.

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