古典曲線更新-0 8年6月十二日|點對點貸款,點對點的貸款,人民對人民貸款|點對點貸款新聞,資訊,借貸策略

Well, your curves do seem to be the steepest around 300 days… Whether or not this is because of the high default rate around 10 mo can’t be seen from this.那麼,您的曲線做似乎是陡峭的300天左右…不管,這是因為高違約率約為10謨不能被視為本。Older loans have a lower default rate as could be expected from i) because they originate from before 10 mo ago or ii) because they’re older and all ‘bad’ people have already defaulted long ago.老年人貸款較低的違約率作為可望從一) ,因為他們來自前10個月前或二)因為他們是老年人和所有的’壞’的人已經拖欠很久以前。Default rate of younger loans is averaged over origination dates before, at and after 10 mo ago, that masks about everything.違約率的年輕貸款平均起始日期之前,在後10個月前,口罩的一切。

What we really need is a default rate by origination date, I know that is not so easy and at the same time gives the analyst room for fiddling around.我們真正需要的是一個默認率起源之日起,我知道這是不那麼容易,同時給出了分析師的餘地周圍順藤摸瓜。‘Day’s past origination date’ is something else than ‘origination date’ as there is data for ‘60 days past origination date’ for a loan originated in November 2006 as well as for a loan originating in January 2008.日過去的起始日期’是比別的’起始日期’有數據的60天過去起源之日起,貸款起源於2006年11月以及為貸款原產於2008年1月。

Thanks for the data!謝謝您的數據!Its good and inspiring work and very useful for further analysis.其良好的和鼓舞人心的工作,非常有用作進一步分析。

A difficulty with using these curves to estimate yield is that they treat paid-up loans as dropouts and omit them from time periods after they’ve been paid.困難與使用這些曲線產量估計是,他們對待繳足貸款輟學和忽略他們時間後,他們已經支付。But a paid-up loan isn’t really a dropout.但是,實收貸款是不是一個真正的輟學率。It’sa guaranteed non-default.這是保證非默認。A pool of 100 people where 99 people pay their loans in two years and the third defaults is a better investment than a pool where nobody pays their loan early but 10 people default after year two, even though the formula used for these graphs the first pool will calculate a 100% default rate (1 out of 1) between years 2 and 3 while the second pool will show a 10% default rate (10 out of 100) in the same period.一組100人在99人支付其貸款在兩年內第三次違約是一個更好的投資比在游泳池沒有支付他們的貸款,但早期10人後,今年默認兩個,即使該公式用於這些圖形的第一池將計算出100 %的拖欠率( 1個1 )年間第2和第3 ,而第二池會顯示10 %的拖欠率( 10滿分100分)在同一時期。

In order to obtain a realistic default rate for purposes of figuring out whether a credit group is a good investment or not, a paid-up loan needs to be treated as a non-default and kept in the denominator from the time it is paid to the end of the 3-year period.為了獲得現實的違約率為目的的搞清楚是否有信用群組是一個很好的投資或不付費的貸款需求將被視為非默認和存放在分母的時間是支付給年底的3年期。A paid-up loan results in a smaller gain than originally expected, but no loss.阿實收貸款結果在一個較小的增益比原先預期,但沒有任何損失。

To address the comparable origination date issue, a version of the Kaplan-Meier approach needs to be used — loans should not appear in the denominator for a period older than their age.為了解決類似的起始日期問題,版本的乘積德梅爾的辦法需要使用-貸款不應該出現在分母期以上的年齡。

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